How many times have you looked back on the real estate market and said, 'I cudda wudda shudda?! Predictive analytics has changed the real estate market. Until now, only the big guys had access to these numbers and even today when most people see the numbers, they have no idea what they are saying. It's time to stop watching the television that reports old news and pay attention to the power of predictive analytics.
Using these numbers, analyst's predicted that COVID would temporarily slow down our market for a short blink of an eye (Feb 23rd-April 5th) to be followed by a sling shot back of Buyers back in to the market (Apr 5th-June 21st). And, as of this past Sunday we are exactly where we were last year at this time. Analysts are now saying that the surge is about over meaning only that this is the BEST time to sell.
Stage 1 - Denial
For out-of-state Buyers or the non-believers, here is more data to support that analysts are saying that the Greater Phoenix area will not be seeing a dip in values any time soon.
Stage 2 - Anger. Buyer's are all feeling it! BIG TIME!
Stage 3 - Bargaining.
You ask 'where isn't it crazy?' It 'used' to be the further you commuted, the less psychotic it was. Exact opposite this time around with Buckeye, Maricopa, Queen Creek and San Tan Valley some of the craziest of markets due to their affordability. The coolest of the markets still considered 'hot' would be in the areas where homes are $1M which is extremely unseasonable. Summertime usually kills the luxury market.
Any time you have more properties under contract then active, it makes it extremely tough for Buyers.
Gilbert 85234: 91 under contract, 40 active - Contract ratio 225
Queen Creek 85142: 350 under contract, 170 active - Contract Ratio 205
Chandler 85249: 131 under contract, 65 active - Contract Ratio 201
Maricopa 85138: 291 under contract, 70 active - Contract Ratio 291
Ahwatukee 85048: 69 under contract, 31 active - Contract Ratio 222
Stage 4 - Depression.
You want to sell but then you have to buy. This is enough to scare anyone to stay in the wrong home. Anything good in life is worth fighting for, right?!
Stage 5 - Acceptance.
The black line below is the Cromford Market Index. The blue lines show actual appreciation (or depreciation) for the LAST 20 YEARS. Notice that the blue tends to lag what the black line is reporting today. Here is the market predictor that the big guns use.
A smart Buyer buys while the market is on the upward move. No one wants to buy in a market that is declining, right? You wouldn't want to sell in a declining market either, right? So tell me now... what are you waiting for?
THIS GIRL KNOWS CHANDLER
Sheryl (Shey) Willis, CNE
GOARIZONA REAL ESTATE
Maricopa County Real Estate Special Commissioner
Zillow Premier Agent
Redfin Partner Agent
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Sheryl Willis, Go Chandler and eXp Realty does not engage in or condone activities which illegally discriminate on the basis of race, color, religion, sex, age, national origin, disability, familial status or any other protected classification under federal or state law.